The Mach 1 Market Value - According to Ebay Data

[Mach828]

I kept seeing people argue about what our cars are worth.

I decided to graph some data.

I took the completed listings from the past 2 weeks of 03-04 Mach 1s. Cars that were not bid on or Did not sell were excluded from the data.

The black line represents a treadline, or best fit line. This is what you should follow to determine the market value in dollars on the left Y-AXIS in correspondence to the cars mileage on the X-AXIS.

I won't make any comments, just let the data speak for itself.

[gbranton]

I bet the cars on top of the line were all blue.

[gbranton]

Originally Posted by gbranton

I bet the cars on top of the line were all blue.

Seriously though, that's pretty much what I thought it would be.

[Mach828]

Originally Posted by gbranton

I bet the cars on top of the line were all blue.

I had to take out all the blue Machs or it would have severly skewed the data higher! jk

[04VAMach1]

Thanks, your data proved my point in the other thread. Low mileage Mach 1s are selling much better than many people have been claiming. Notice that there are 10 sales of Mach 1s with less than 10k miles that sold for over $15k...at least $3k than what was claimed in the other thread.

Unfortunately you don't have enough data points to support your conclusion with a trendline. You would need at least 6 months worth of data to support a trendline analysis.

Another flaw in your analysis is that you used eBay data...a bargain hunter's paradise. You don't use eBay to determine actual market value, you look there to determine what the bottom of the market is. Ebay is simply not what it used to be.

There are far more Mach 1's trading hands at dealerships than there are on eBay. You would have to include dealerships as well as private party sales to get a true market value. Where can you get that kind of data? Oh yeah, KBB and NADA use that kind of data to come up with their pricing.

[CO Mack]

Originally Posted by 04VAMach1

Thanks, your data proved my point in the other thread. Low mileage Mach 1s are selling much better than many people have been claiming. Notice that there are 10 sales of Mach 1s with less than 10k miles that sold for over $15k...at least $3k than what was claimed in the other thread.

Those are super low mi Machs which are collector worthy. Anything owned by someone who isn't trying to keep it as a collector, and has put some miles on it, the car is worth $10-15k at the very most.

It'd be interesting to see the listings from the 2 Machs with actual milage that sold between $14-16k. I bet they were highly modified (or orange ). This was the above market price range I paid for mine as it had exactly the mods I had planned, and could not have done myself for the same amount of money, saved me the time of doing them and was also my most favored color. Thus, I was literally the perfect buyer for the car, and the PO had had my car on the market for many months.

The "latest" thread you and I discussed in had a 2 owner 20k mi (CO) Mach listed at $19,000. You'll note, cars with milage slightly above and below actually sold at $10,000. Nearly 50% less than that car was listed for. That is a seriously over market price. Call eBay what you want, but it is the best tool for finding actual value of something.

In my search, it wasn't terribly hard to find a 20,000-30,000 mi Mach for ~$12,000, and I saw low mi cars not moving at $13k.

[Mach828]

Ya there were a couple odd balls, that had a new built motor with 600hp ect.

And I would agree that private sale data would be nice.

Dealership data would not. Dealers will say oh well buy this used car at 16k and I will give you 2-3k over the book trade in value for your car. That is not an accurate representation.

And dealers and private sellers are selling on ebay? How is that not accurate. Those people bidding are the same consumers who will offer to buy your car.

The data shows that if your Mach has 0-10,000 miles consumers are willing to pay an average of about $16,500. However if your in the 30K+ range consumers don't think its worth more than $13K.

[Mach828]

Doesn't matter what KBB says your car is worth, because when it comes down to it, KBB isn't going to hand you a check.

What matters is what real people are willing to cut you a check for.

And if your paying more than $13K for a car with over 30K miles, then you are getting played and not looking hard enough.

[CO Mack]

Originally Posted by Mach828

And if your paying more than $13K for a car with over 30K miles, then you are getting played and not looking hard enough.

I think the important point is, pay more if you find something that speaks to you, and you can afford it, but understand, when it comes time to sell, anything you paid over market price you aren't getting back.

People buy new cars all the time, and it's far worse financially than overpaying a bit on a used car.

I know the $3000 over market I paid for mods will be tough to get back, but compared to the depreciation of buying a new car, it was a better choice.

[04VAMach1]

Originally Posted by CO Mack

Those are super low mi Machs which are collector worthy. Anything owned by someone who isn't trying to keep it as a collector, and has put some miles on it, the car is worth $10-15k at the very most.

It'd be interesting to see the listings from the 2 Machs with actual milage that sold between $14-16k. I bet they were highly modified (or orange ). This was the above market price range I paid for mine as it had exactly the mods I had planned, and could not have done myself for the same amount of money, saved me the time of doing them and was also my most favored color. Thus, I was literally the perfect buyer for the car, and the PO had had my car on the market for many months.

The "latest" thread you and I discussed in had a 2 owner 20k mi (CO) Mach listed at $19,000. You'll note, cars with milage slightly above and below actually sold at $10,000. Nearly 50% less than that car was listed for. That is a seriously over market price. Call eBay what you want, but it is the best tool for finding actual value of something.

In my search, it wasn't terribly hard to find a 20,000-30,000 mi Mach for ~$12,000, and I saw low mi cars not moving at $13k.

There's nothing wrong with asking high and giving yourself room to negotiate. Since he is a dealer, he will probably take $16k for it and still make a little bit of money. He likely bought it at auction for $13k-$14k.

Just FYI, modifications often bring the value of these cars down. Most people don't trust mods unless it can be documented who did the work. Besides, lenders won't loan above the NADA value of the car so if you sell a car with mods then you end up losing money.

The data above shows 1 car between 10k and 25k miles...not enough data to draw a conclusion about. That's a big problem with this chart...only 2 weeks worth of data or 30 data points. To be statistically sound, you need at least 60 data points. I haven't seen many cars for sale below 20k miles and I've been watching the market for 2 years while considering selling mine. There are lots of Machs for sale with over 30k miles for $10k-$12k, but relatively few under 30k miles.

Like I said before, eBay is good for finding out what a bargain hunter will pay or the bottom limit of what market value is. If you want to use eBay to determine what YOU are willing to pay that's fine, but if you use it as a seller then you are leaving money on the table. Most people do not buy from eBay or even look at eBay while shopping for a vehicle. Most buyers still use traditional methods like dealerships or ads like autotrader. They also use KBB and NADA to determine what to pay.

[CO Mack]

eBay tells you what people who are not beholden to a finance co/tote the note lot to borrow money to buy the car are willing to pay. IE, the actual market private party sales price.

Mods are a terrible return on investment, and reduce your pool of potential buyers making the marketing more of a challenge. But they can raise the value- they did for the seller of my car, but not enough he was happy about it. And I just sold my Fox coupe with a bunch of Griggs parts for more than it would've gone for stock as well, though not nearly enough more to justify the cost of the parts.

There is significant dangers with listing your car overpriced in the beginning...you could ask the PO of my car, and especially my house.

[04VAMach1]

Originally Posted by CO Mack

eBay tells you what people who are not beholden to a finance co/tote the note lot to borrow money to buy the car are willing to pay. IE, the actual market private party sales price.

EBay tells you what you will get for your car if you are desperate to sell. Like I said, it is the very bottom of the market. People don't look on eBay to find quality, they are looking for the best price. I know several people who buy cars on eBay to turn around and sell them on their lot because it's easier than buying from an auction.