NFL Football Thread

[RobbyB]

Originally Posted by np_mach1

You are just rocking those rose colored glasses huh? Willis won't cover Jimmy much if at all. He is a Mike. Curl to flat zone unless its tampa 2 then mid range middle zone. Your safety most often then not will match up with Jimmy man to man. You really think Patrick is going to split out wide or in the slot and get out of the middle where he roams??? Not going to happen. He will have to cover Sproles, and as good as Willis is I don't think anyone in the NFL can match up Sproles 1-1. You can game plan against him but you leave other areas open.

I'll just respond to this... Patrick Willis and the Niners defense make elite running backs look like high school players. McCoy had 18 yards rushing. A couple of years ago, they held adrian peterson to 37 yards. Ray Rice? 59 yards on 21 carries. I have zero concern about Darren Sproles vs Patrick Willis. I really think they'll put Navarro Bowman on him like they have with RB's all year. They've put Patrick back in coverage WAY more than they have in years past due to Bowman's break out season. Graham and the 3rd WR Henderson vs the Nickel corner Culliver the rookie is the only thing I worry about. Granted, Culliver did a decent job covering WR's like Calvin Johnson and Victor Cruz, so I think he can at least limit the big plays.

[np_mach1]

Originally Posted by RobbyB

I'll just respond to this... Patrick Willis and the Niners defense make elite running backs look like high school players. McCoy had 18 yards rushing. A couple of years ago, they held adrian peterson to 37 yards. Ray Rice? 59 yards on 21 carries. I have zero concern about Darren Sproles vs Patrick Willis. I really think they'll put Navarro Bowman on him like they have with RB's all year. They've put Patrick back in coverage WAY more than they have in years past due to Bowman's break out season. Graham and the 3rd WR Henderson vs the Nickel corner Culliver the rookie is the only thing I worry about. Granted, Culliver did a decent job covering WR's like Calvin Johnson and Victor Cruz, so I think he can at least limit the big plays.

no doubt the niners stop running backs when they run, but sproles is an open space guy. They get him on dump offs and in the flats. If its between the tackles or tosses sweeps outside I think the niners eat them up all day but that isn't the Saints game. They are not a power running team.

It's just not logical to put an inside backer spread all over to chase Jimmy, when its a match up problem and take Willis away from his strength in the middle taking crossing routes away getting after Rb's and Qb's.

I like Carlos, good cover guy who creates turn overs, I am interested to see how he does against multiple WR talents. The Saints are just loaded with guys who produce.

You are probably right on Bowman "LaVarro" (Him and LA are friends and wore the same number at Penn St) coverage. Beast DMV area guy. All he does is gobble people up. I follow those guys close like I do Ahmad Brooks (local guy as well). Kinda crazy how they end up in San Fran along with Vernon too another area guy. HAHA

The only way to limit the Saints is get after Drew. You take him out then they are done. Not easy as many think but it is possible. While the niners have a chance I think it will be one hell of a game I will be sure to watch.

[jcooper0818]

Originally Posted by np_mach1

You are just rocking those rose colored glasses huh? Willis won't cover Jimmy much if at all. He is a Mike, so the only chance is zone coverage. Curl to flat zone unless its tampa 2 then mid range middle zone. Your safety most often then not will match up with Jimmy man to man. You really think Patrick is going to split out wide or in the slot and get out of the middle where he roams??? Not going to happen. He will have to cover Sproles, and as good as Willis is I don't think anyone in the NFL can match up Sproles 1-1. You can game plan against him but you leave other areas open.

Granted Saints D is not that great, but their O is playing lights out right now and will be a tough match up for any team out there. The saints have won almost ALL of their games with out a run game, but short passes and screens make up for it. Saints may have a match up night mare with the run game on both sides of the ball but can the niners score enough to win should be the question to ask...

And you not aknowledging that Big Ben was a hobbled mess then you are truely being biased. 49ers won, can't take anything away from them. You are just not being honest with yourself though.

Saints have an amazing screen game but others never notice the fact we have 1900 yrds this year. Hell, saints fans never realize it...then they announce it and I'm like wow that was fast!!. We have 3 backs that get 50 yards a piece...look at the stats...we are ranked 9th in the league
http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorysta...2&d-447263-n=1
we are only 1 yard per game behind the "ground and pound" 49ers!!
That means all FOUR of our rusher are fresh come playoff time (Ingram, Thomas, Sproles, and Ivory)
But sure, the 49ers may stop the run...at first...then Brees throws the ball and they back off and all of a sudden the run game is effective and San Fran has no idea what to do the rest of the game.
And this ball control argument is the stupidest thing ever, ESPN loves to throw it out there! "Keep the ball away from them"...BS!! The Broncos-Pats Game is a perfect example of this game if they play. Tebow and them ran the ball all down the field taking 6 mins off the clock...then Brady got the ball and 2 mins later its a tied game. That will be the exact same trend if we are to play. Just pointing out an obvious fact

[np_mach1]

Originally Posted by jcooper0818

Saints have an amazing screen game but others never notice the fact we have 1900 yrds this year. Hell, saints fans never realize it...then they announce it and I'm like wow that was fast!!. We have 3 backs that get 50 yards a piece...look at the stats...we are ranked 9th in the league
http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorysta...2&d-447263-n=1
we are only 1 yard per game behind the "ground and pound" 49ers!!
That means all FOUR of our rusher are fresh come playoff time (Ingram, Thomas, Sproles, and Ivory)
But sure, the 49ers may stop the run...at first...then Brees throws the ball and they back off and all of a sudden the run game is effective and San Fran has no idea what to do the rest of the game.
And this ball control argument is the stupidest thing ever, ESPN loves to throw it out there! "Keep the ball away from them"...BS!! The Broncos-Pats Game is a perfect example of this game if they play. Tebow and them ran the ball all down the field taking 6 mins off the clock...then Brady got the ball and 2 mins later its a tied game. That will be the exact same trend if we are to play. Just pointing out an obvious fact

I'm in favor of the Saints, they are just not a juggnaught rushing team like the top couple are. I am pointing out the saints have won on the pass and will continue too if they get shut down on the run. Screens and swing routes are just as effective as runs if not more than. That being said it is not easy to run against the niners. Their front 4 are very talented and their linebackers are very good. Their weak spot is in protecting against the pass. They are a fast team that over pursues and can be exploited with mis direction, getting the ball in open space and Drew is going to get his yards and Td's no matter what.

Keep in mind the Saints did get some trash yards running after they had the games won that they were spanking their competition.

I agree on the ball control. Specifically if your team can force a turn over. Time of possesion is important to a degree, but not a determining factor against a team that can almost score at will.

[kiler be]

How good are the 49'ers.....they barely beat the Redskins.
Being in the worst Div. in the NFL has helped them greatly.

[02mach1]

All good games stars at 4:15pm est on CBS this sunday

[jcooper0818]

Originally Posted by kiler be

how good are the 49'ers.....they barely beat the redskins.
Being in the worst div. In the nfl has helped them greatly.

+1!!

[RobbyB]

Originally Posted by kiler be

How good are the 49'ers.....they barely beat the Redskins.
Being in the worst Div. in the NFL has helped them greatly.

How in the world do you consider them to barely beat the Redskins?

They were up 19-3 with 2:30 left in the game and they got a touchdown in garbage time. Ok, sure, they barely won I guess.

They were 9-1 going to Baltimore having played only 2 division games.

I love how nobody knows anything about my team with the exception of a few people.

[RobbyB]

Originally Posted by jcooper0818

Saints have an amazing screen game but others never notice the fact we have 1900 yrds this year. Hell, saints fans never realize it...then they announce it and I'm like wow that was fast!!. We have 3 backs that get 50 yards a piece...look at the stats...we are ranked 9th in the league
http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorysta...2&d-447263-n=1
we are only 1 yard per game behind the "ground and pound" 49ers!!
That means all FOUR of our rusher are fresh come playoff time (Ingram, Thomas, Sproles, and Ivory)
But sure, the 49ers may stop the run...at first...then Brees throws the ball and they back off and all of a sudden the run game is effective and San Fran has no idea what to do the rest of the game.
And this ball control argument is the stupidest thing ever, ESPN loves to throw it out there! "Keep the ball away from them"...BS!! The Broncos-Pats Game is a perfect example of this game if they play. Tebow and them ran the ball all down the field taking 6 mins off the clock...then Brady got the ball and 2 mins later its a tied game. That will be the exact same trend if we are to play. Just pointing out an obvious fact

Keep in mind the 49ers played the AFC North which is good at stopping the run (with the exception of the Browns). Meanwhile the Saints played the Bucs and Panthers twice, as well as the NFC North whom only the Bears that you could argue can stop the run. You have to keep in mind that comparing stats of teams with different schedules isn't always accurate. Your team has also ran 122 more offensive plays. That's almost 10 per game.

Your team runs a 4-3. If you look at the teams that run a 4-3 that the Niners have played (Lions, Rams, Seahawks, Eagles, Bengals & Bucs) they have had their best running games against it.

The Broncos don't have the defense the 49ers do. They don't have the pass rush, they don't stop the run and their only saving grace is champ bailey. Actually, their offense is worse too so I'm not sure how they're even worth mentioning in comparison. A better comparison would be what the Steelers did to the Patriots. They are more similar to the 49ers than the Broncos.

The game will come down to whether or not the 49ers score in the red zone. They broke an NFL record for field goals. That's not exactly a good thing. If they can turn them into TD's, I'm confident they can beat the Saints especially at home. They haven't lost there since week 2 with only a single starter healthy in the secondary. They have done a good job of frustrating teams this year.

[RobbyB]

Originally Posted by np_mach1

no doubt the niners stop running backs when they run, but sproles is an open space guy. They get him on dump offs and in the flats. If its between the tackles or tosses sweeps outside I think the niners eat them up all day but that isn't the Saints game. They are not a power running team.

It's just not logical to put an inside backer spread all over to chase Jimmy, when its a match up problem and take Willis away from his strength in the middle taking crossing routes away getting after Rb's and Qb's.

I like Carlos, good cover guy who creates turn overs, I am interested to see how he does against multiple WR talents. The Saints are just loaded with guys who produce.

You are probably right on Bowman "LaVarro" (Him and LA are friends and wore the same number at Penn St) coverage. Beast DMV area guy. All he does is gobble people up. I follow those guys close like I do Ahmad Brooks (local guy as well). Kinda crazy how they end up in San Fran along with Vernon too another area guy. HAHA

The only way to limit the Saints is get after Drew. You take him out then they are done. Not easy as many think but it is possible. While the niners have a chance I think it will be one hell of a game I will be sure to watch.

The Niners pass rush has gotten better every week. They have to have a strong showing. Even elite quarterbacks get frustrated. That's what I'm counting on. It's not easy on the road.

Anyway, to show how much I am into football, at the beginning of the season, I created a program that projects the outcome of games and even the season. I update the stats every week and project the playoffs and even the superbowl winner.

Since you're a Steelers fan, I thought you'd be happy with what it calculated to win this year:

MachManRobby.BlogSpot.com

I should have mentioned that I'm a software engineer/statistician

[np_mach1]

Originally Posted by RobbyB

The Broncos don't have the defense the 49ers do. They don't have the pass rush, they don't stop the run and their only saving grace is champ bailey. Actually, their offense is worse too so I'm not sure how they're even worth mentioning in comparison. A better comparison would be what the Steelers did to the Patriots. They are more similar to the 49ers than the Broncos.

The game will come down to whether or not the 49ers score in the red zone. They broke an NFL record for field goals. That's not exactly a good thing. If they can turn them into TD's, I'm confident they can beat the Saints especially at home. They haven't lost there since week 2 with only a single starter healthy in the secondary. They have done a good job of frustrating teams this year.

Broncos don't have a complete D but you have to give credit to Elvis Dumerville (spelling?) and Von Miller (beast of a rookie). The stats might not be there but they are **** good pass rushers.

Plus David Akers breaking a FG record was awesome for my FF team LMAO. Eagles were so dumb for letting him go on the circumstances he was dealing with.

[np_mach1]

Originally Posted by RobbyB

The Niners pass rush has gotten better every week. They have to have a strong showing. Even elite quarterbacks get frustrated. That's what I'm counting on. It's not easy on the road.

Anyway, to show how much I am into football, at the beginning of the season, I created a program that projects the outcome of games and even the season. I update the stats every week and project the playoffs and even the superbowl winner.

Since you're a Steelers fan, I thought you'd be happy with what it calculated to win this year:

MachManRobby.BlogSpot.com

I should have mentioned that I'm a software engineer/statistician

Robby, thats a cool website. You should get paid for those things if you formulate odds on Vegas for gamblers to use your picks. Could be very profitable.

[RobbyB]

Originally Posted by np_mach1

Broncos don't have a complete D but you have to give credit to Elvis Dumerville (spelling?) and Von Miller (beast of a rookie). The stats might not be there but they are **** good pass rushers.

Plus David Akers breaking a FG record was awesome for my FF team LMAO. Eagles were so dumb for letting him go on the circumstances he was dealing with.

Aldon Smith has more sacks with half as many snaps played. He's not as good in the running game as Miller (which is why he's a 3rd down LB), but Miller can't get after the QB quite like he can. The Broncos D isn't a slouch, but I wouldn't say they were elite either. They rank like 20th or worse in just about every category.

Originally Posted by np_mach1

Robby, thats a cool website. You should get paid for those things if you formulate odds on Vegas for gamblers to use your picks. Could be very profitable.

I haven't looked recently, but up til Week 13, I was beating ESPN's accuscore lol.

[np_mach1]

Originally Posted by RobbyB

Aldon Smith has more sacks with half as many snaps played. He's not as good in the running game as Miller (which is why he's a 3rd down LB), but Miller can't get after the QB quite like he can. The Broncos D isn't a slouch, but I wouldn't say they were elite either. They rank like 20th or worse in just about every category.



I haven't looked recently, but up til Week 13, I was beating ESPN's accuscore lol.

Thats why I said stats might not show it. The Niners have a better D and that creates opportunities for other players to excel. That's like saying Cromartie is better than Revis becasue he gets more picks. Revis isn't contested as much. Or like some dumb *** skins fans are saying that Ryan Kerrigan is better than Orakpo because of stats not understanding the attention orakpo gets now.

He is a good ball player though I just have a different take on it I guess.

That is crazy on the espn thing. I bet you could make a nice little side biz on it though.

[RobbyB]

Originally Posted by np_mach1

Thats why I said stats might not show it. The Niners have a better D and that creates opportunities for other players to excel. That's like saying Cromartie is better than Revis becasue he gets more picks. Revis isn't contested as much. Or like some dumb *** skins fans are saying that Ryan Kerrigan is better than Orakpo because of stats not understanding the attention orakpo gets now.

He is a good ball player though I just have a different take on it I guess.

That is crazy on the espn thing. I bet you could make a nice little side biz on it though.

I don't even need stats to know that Orakpo is better than Kerrigan. Just watch them play one game. Comparing corners to each other is a lot different than comparing line backers though.

The Broncos might have some star players, but as an over all defense they really aren't anything special. A lot better than last year though.

This is my first year with the program I developed. I wanted to see how it did before I really tried to publicize it. This is my test run year. So far, it's done quite well. What's interesting, is that the teams that I most accurately predict their score... are the teams with the best records with the exception of Baltimore. Although, the Rams have been consistent, but in the other direction. Shows that consistency goes a long way.

[np_mach1]

Originally Posted by RobbyB

I don't even need stats to know that Orakpo is better than Kerrigan. Just watch them play one game. Comparing corners to each other is a lot different than comparing line backers though.

The Broncos might have some star players, but as an over all defense they really aren't anything special. A lot better than last year though.

This is my first year with the program I developed. I wanted to see how it did before I really tried to publicize it. This is my test run year. So far, it's done quite well. What's interesting, is that the teams that I most accurately predict their score... are the teams with the best records with the exception of Baltimore. Although, the Rams have been consistent, but in the other direction. Shows that consistency goes a long way.

I think we are on the same page. The idiots I am talking about just say "well look at the stats" and don't consider anything else. I am not in love with the Broncos D either. If Tim can't keep them off the field they will fall hard.

Yeah, I'm interested to see how close your predictions are. I think its cool. Not something every does or can do.

[NTMAREMACH]

I know most of you don't want to hear it but how about them Pats. Didn't look to good in the first quarter but azz kicken from there on in. Come on playoffs.

[serviceman1]

Originally Posted by NTMAREMACH

I know most of you don't want to hear it but how about them Pats. Didn't look to good in the first quarter but azz kicken from there on in. Come on playoffs.

I'm with you. The PATRIOT haters can only wish they were #1 in the AFC. What was that 3 or was it 4 picks today lost count not to bad for the worst defense in football

[Big Ron]

Let's see if I can get a word in on this.....and I'll be the first to say it.

Cowboys blow another one. Just wait till next year!







Big Ron

[un gm]

^ what no faith in Romo magic? We will see a cowboy game next week

[Thunderbolt]

Originally Posted by serviceman1

I'm with you. The PATRIOT haters can only wish they were #1 in the AFC.

More often than not, the #1 seeds don't make it to the Superbowl or if they do, they lose. Unless the Steelers all die in a plane crash I can't imagine them losing to the Brokeback Broncos. That should set up a Patriot-Steeler rematch.

[dino]

texans really need to pull their **** together.
teblow sucks. i don't see what the world sees in him, other than being a jesus freak.
afc west sucks in general. 8-8 tiebreaker to determine playoff team...seriously?

[serviceman1]

Originally Posted by Thunderbolt

More often than not, the #1 seeds don't make it to the Superbowl or if they do, they lose. Unless the Steelers all die in a plane crash I can't imagine them losing to the Brokeback Broncos. That should set up a Patriot-Steeler rematch.

bring it on after trying to stay interesrted in that game today I'm sure you could use some entertainment. But first good luck beeting the higher power

[un gm]

Originally Posted by un gm

^ what no faith in Romo magic? We will see a cowboy game next year

fixt

[stang8092]

Worst to first for Broncos, not pretty but I'll take it.

Someone from Texas talking trash about Tebow? Sure he has a ways to go, but he's not sitting home with Romo & the Cowgirls. For the record, Ive picked the Cowboys to win it the last few years. Lol

Being a Masshole, I just want to see the Patriots lose. Haha